On the End of the Population Explosion: A Rejoinder

Abstract

Focus is on the substantive issues raised in the Reply to this authors criticism of the propositions expounded by Bogue and Tsu on world fertility trends their causes and policy implications and the prospects for zero population growth. The discussion is organized around 4 main topics -- world population in the year 2000 estimates of recent fertility decline explaining fertility decline and the case for family planning programs. The 5.88 billion world population figure projected by Bogue and Tsui for the year 2000 is within the domain of the plausible; criticism was directed not at their numerical figures but at their interpretation of those figures as representing a world demographic outlook markedly changed for the better. Bogue and Tsuis defense of their estimates of recent fertility decline underscores the tenuousness of the numerical estimates that they have presented for that decline and the validity of the objections raised. Whatever the actual influence of family planning programs on fertility decline bickering about percentages attributable to this or that factor is warranted only if the underlying model construction that produced the results initially could be adequately defended. The analytical difficulty Bogue and Tsui encounter but are unwilling to admit is illustrated. There are obvious and strong arguments pointing to the potentially high cost-effectiveness of family planning programs but on the basis of the record of such programs to date it is clear that in many present-day developing countries the programs potential scope for affecting fertility levels is very limited.