Abstract

With, the completion of the High Aswan Dam it will be possible to use the water of the Nile River in many different ways for different beneficial purposes. The selection of the best method of operating the dam and developing new resources to speed economic growth and social progress is of great importance to the United Arab Republic. A large sustained multidisciplinary effort combining economic analysis, engineering design, and governmental planning will be required. It is the purpose of this paper to describe some analytical methods that will be useful in this undertaking. A mathematical model for computer studies is developed to elucidate and quantify the relations between the variables pertaining to agricultural and power uses. Other functions of the dam such as flood protection and improvement of navigation are not examined in this initial study. However, it will be possible to investigate them in a more comprehensive model using similar mathematical methods. In its present form the model is designed to use standard linear programs so that operations studies can be made without recourse to sophisticated computer techniques. The model incorporates some of the chief factors affecting efficiency of multipurpose operation for the generation of hydroelectric power and for increasing the agricultural production of the United Arab Republic. The formulation provides a logical framework on which other functions may be added at a later stage. In the last section of this paper some of the most important modifications and elaborations are discussed. The numerical data used in the present study are based on a preliminary analysis of available hydrological and economic data. Considerably more statistical analysis will be required to develop valid numerical data for the model so that reliable inferences and rational decisions can be made. The computational results at this stage are useful only in indicating the kind of inferences and the type of information that may be obtained in a more definitive study.

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