Abstract
The aim of this article is to simulate the economic impact on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and employment of renewable energy sources investment in Morocco over the next 40 years. In this sense, several potential scenarios of energy component evolution have been used based on the results of a specific survey to sector stakeholders. We obtain accurate results, avoiding speculative/theoretical assumptions in terms of scenario design. As usual in the sector, a Dynamic Input–Output Model (DI–O) is used to estimate the direct and indirect effects of such a large investment and, avoiding the criticism of this type of model in the context of long-term simulations, the alternative of de Arce et al. (2012) is used. In this framework, substantial results derive from the three scenarios considered: the increase in Moroccan GDP as a result of this investment could be around 1.2–1.7 points and, on average, 42,000 new jobs could be created.
Highlights
In this article, we estimate the economic effects on the value added and employment of renewable energy source (RES) investments in Morocco in the 40 years, defining several scenarios about the level of local manufacturing of windmills, Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) and Photovoltaic (PV) components to be installed, maintained and operated during this period
The first output that we can highlight as a result of our simulation scenarios is the investment amount required to install the RES to generate electric power implied by the previous information, taking into account the part that is going to be directly produced by Moroccan industries and the part that is imported
The differences between scenarios are very small in terms of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) between Business As Usual (BAU) and “More likely”
Summary
We estimate the economic effects on the value added and employment of renewable energy source (RES) investments in Morocco in the 40 years, defining several scenarios about the level of local manufacturing of windmills, Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) and Photovoltaic (PV) components to be installed, maintained and operated during this period. The main contribution of this research is to clarify the perspectives of RES investment in Morocco through a more realistic approach, combining this information with a well-tested (and improved) academic model such as the DI–O [1,2]. In the case of the other technologies contained in our estimates (wind and photovoltaic), we assume that the mature level of these industries will take a similar course on local manufacturing in Morocco in the coming years. We open the door to further research on the evolution of the Moroccan industry in these technologies
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