On the determination and rank for the environmental risk aspects for ship navigating in the Arctic based on big Earth data.

Abstract

The unique, ambiguous, and complex navigable environment determines the essential difference between Arctic shipping routes and conventional routes in regard to safety issues. To achieve a scientific understanding of the characteristics and variations of environmental risks involved in the Arctic shipping, it is essential to rationally address the uncertainty and incompleteness of environment-related risk information. In this study, fuzzy evidential reasoning is introduced to carry out multisource heterogeneous data fusion and spatiotemporal dynamic assessment of navigable environmental risks for Arctic shipping routes. Based on big Earth data collected from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, National Snow And Ice Data Center, National Center for Environmental Information, and University of Bremen from 2012 to 2019, a case study of the Northeast Passage is considered to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed methodology. Finally, the results are described from three aspects: spatial distribution, temporal changes, and sensitivity analysis, with consideration of the entire passage and five marginal seas at the same time. Based on these findings, the prospect of application of big Earth data in risk assessment is further discussed from two aspects of knowledge acquisition by big data and risk analysis at different scales, to inspire sustainable development of Arctic shipping.