On the deformation cycle of a strongly coupled plate interface: The triple earthquakes of 16 March 1963, 15 November 2006, and 13 January 2007 along the Kurile subduction zone

Abstract

The great plate interface Kurile earthquake of 15 November 2006 (Mw = 8.3) was immediately followed by normal aftershocks in the outer rise of the central Kurile subduction zone. Two months later at a distance <50 km from this event the 13 January 2007 (Mw = 8.1) earthquake with a pure normal mechanism occurred in the outer rise of the central Kurile. The 15 November 2006 earthquake ruptured an area of 280 × 150 km2 with maximum slip of almost 7 m, while the 13 January 2007 earthquake ruptured an area of 240 × 40 km2 with a maximum slip of almost 14 m. These two significant events were preceded by a major reverse earthquake on 16 March 1963 (Mw = 7.7) that took place close to the location of the 13 January 2007 earthquake. These very different earthquakes demonstrate the different stages of the deformation cycle along strongly coupled plates at the central Kurile arc and present a rare case of stress regime reversal over a short time span. In order to understand the details of these three earthquakes, we inverted for the source rupture processes of the earthquakes and delineated the location and dimension of asperities. The role of gravity and topography anomalies and their correlation to the asperity distribution as well as the long‐term seismicity is studied in detail. Using trench‐parallel Bouguer anomaly, we have identified the differences in the asperities and the location of larger normal outer rise aftershocks as well as the location of 13 January 2007 earthquake. We also show that the long‐term seismicity of the central Kurile arc is confined to the intraslab and not the plate interface. The static stress transfer for these earthquakes showed that the stress on optimally oriented thrust faults is increased in the northeastern part of the rupture area of the 15 November 2006 earthquake. Absence of major and great earthquakes to the northeastern immediate vicinity of the rupture area of the 15 November 2006 earthquake supports the hypothesis that this area is mature for the next strong earthquake along the Kurile arc.