On the decreasing trend of the number of monsoon depressions in the Bay of Bengal

Abstract

This study unravels the physical link between the weakening of the monsoon circulation and the decreasing trend in the frequency of monsoon depressions over the Bay of Bengal. Based on the analysis of the terms of Genesis Potential Index, an empirical index to quantify the relative contribution of large scale environmental variables responsible for the modulation of storms, it is shown here that the reduction in the mid-tropospheric relative humidity is the most important reason for the decrease in the number of monsoon depressions. The net reduction of relative humidity over the Bay of Bengal is primarily due to the decrease in the moisture flux convergence, which is attributed to the weakening of the low level jet, a characteristic feature of monsoon circulation. Further, the anomalous moisture convergence over the western equatorial Indian Ocean associated with the rapid warming of the sea surface, reduces the moisture advection into the Bay of Bengal and hence adversely affect the genesis/intensification of monsoon depressions. Hence, the reduction in the number of monsoon depression over the Bay of Bengal could be one of the manifestations of the differential rates in the observed warming trend of the Indian Ocean basin.