On the correlation between a sub-level qualifier refining the danger level with observations and models relating to the contributing factors of avalanche danger

Abstract

Abstract. Forecasting avalanche danger at a regional scale is a largely data-driven yet also experience-based decision-making process by human experts. In the case of public avalanche forecasts, this assessment process terminates in an expert judgment concerning summarizing avalanche conditions by using one of five danger levels. This strong simplification of the continuous, multi-dimensional nature of avalanche hazard allows for efficient communication but inevitably leads to a loss of information when summarizing the severity of avalanche hazard. Intending to overcome the discrepancy between determining the final target output in higher resolution while maintaining the well-established standard of assessing and communicating avalanche hazard using the avalanche danger scale, avalanche forecasters at the national avalanche warning service in Switzerland used an approach that combines absolute and relative judgments. First, forecasters make an absolute judgment using the five-level danger scale. In a second step, a relative judgment is made by specifying a sub-level describing the avalanche conditions relative to the chosen danger level. This approach takes into account the human ability to reliably estimate only a certain number of classes. Here, we analyze these (yet unpublished) sub-levels, comparing them with data representing the three contributing factors of avalanche hazard: snowpack stability, the frequency distribution of snowpack stability, and avalanche size. We analyze both data used in operational avalanche forecasting and data independent of the forecast, going back 5 years. Using a sequential analysis, we first establish which data are suitable and in which part of the danger scale they belong by comparing their distributions at consecutive danger levels. In a second step, integrating these findings, we compare the frequency of locations with poor snowpack stability and the number and size of avalanches with the forecast sub-level. Overall, we find good agreement: a higher sub-level is generally related to more locations with poor snowpack stability and more avalanches of larger size. These results suggest that on average avalanche forecasters can make avalanche danger assessments with higher resolution than the five-level danger scale. Our findings are specific to the current forecast set-up in Switzerland. However, we believe that avalanche warning services making a hazard assessment using a similar temporal and spatial scale as currently used in Switzerland should also be able to refine their assessments if (1) relevant data are sufficiently available in time and space and (2) a similar approach combining absolute and relative judgment is used. The sub-levels show a rank-order correlation with data related to the three contributing factors of avalanche hazard. Hence, they increase the predictive value of the forecast, opening the discussion on how this information could be provided to forecast users.