On the Concept of Structural Policy for the Long Term Perspective

Abstract

The article analyzes two landmark events in the fuel and energy complex and the military-industrial complex, which predetermine Russia’s long-term structural policy: (1) reduction in oil production and exports and (2) optimization of defense expenditures. The possible types of curves for the upcoming decline in oil production and exports due to the depletion and (in the foreseeable future) exhaustion of its reserves are considered. Hypothetical calculations of natural rent losses and their compensation due to anticrisis measures of import and export substitution prove the possibility of an evolutionary path of structural transformations that exclude a new transformation crisis in Russia. The economic problems of defense sufficiency cycles, the future diversification of the military-industrial complex, and the optimization of armaments production are discussed. Taking into account national projects (programs) for the period up to 2024, factors of compensating growth in construction, engineering, production of consumer goods, construction materials, and services are considered. The problem of finding that which is optimum for world economic relations and limited globalization in the conditions of the foreign economic activity crisis is formulated. The perspectives of human capital accumulation and the achievements of leadership in the competition for sales markets are analyzed.