On the climate impacts of four different Great Green Wall scenarios on the northern Africa and the Atlantic Tropical Cyclones variability.

Abstract

The Great Green Wall (GGW) is a multibillion-dollar African initiative to combat desertification in the Sahel by restoring 100 million hectares of degraded land. The idea of a physical green wall of trees has now been developed into the implementation of scattered green zones throughout arid areas, providing sustainable reforestation, revegetation, and land management. In West Africa, the most important climate feature is the West African Monsoon (WAM), which brings rainfall over the Sahel during the Northern Hemisphere summer. Climate dynamics associated with WAM changes could also play a role on the Atlantic Tropical Cyclones (ATCs) formation and variability. The potential climate impacts of the most recent GGW plan on northern Africa and tropical Atlantic have not yet been adequately evaluated, raising concerns about unforeseen climate ramifications that could affect stability in northern Africa and impact on the ATC variability. Here, we use a high-resolution (~13 km) regional climate model to evaluate the climate impacts of four GGW scenarios with varying vegetation densities under two extreme emission pathways (low and high). Higher vegetation density GGW scenarios under both emission pathways show enhanced rainfall, reduced drought lengths and decreased summer temperatures beyond the GGW region relative to the cases with no GGW. However, all GGW scenarios show more extreme hot days and heat indices in the pre-monsoonal season. Furthermore, in spite of a strong variation in the African Easterly Waves activity, no significant changes are found in terms of ATCs frequency, intensity, meridional motion and translation speed over the North Atlantic area. Small changes in the TC densities are found in front of the cost of West Africa,  in the eastern side of the Main Development Region. These findings highlight the GGW's contrasting climatic effects, emphasizing the need for comprehensive assessments in shaping future policies.