On prognostication ability of active geosystems: metastability and steady transitions instead of attractors

Abstract

Some details and special features are under considerations of undertaken experimental and theoretical studies related to prognosticated ability and forecast of geo-systems dynamics which were paid not enough attention but, possibly, might have crucial importance for definition of future studies in this area. According to the ideas of nonlinear dynamics of spatial-temporal processes and systems new capabilities and new approaches to their solutions are being discussed. Crucial dynamic objects of such an approach are meta-stability and steady transitions, and, in addition, to metastable images in phase spaces of the system do not respond the attractors but transitional sets of paths. Active role of geo-medium and its specific dynamic conditions generated by cooperative behavior of its elements and subsystems is underlined. More appropriate definition is formed of seismic process and possible mechanisms of generation of spontaneous emissions of different character, associated with transitional dissipation, more justified from both their physical interpretation and simulation. On this base and taking into account overall criteria, which guarantee the emergence of critical dynamics and discovered lately new nonlinear dynamic regimes in spread active (excited) systems actual problems are discussed of diagnostics and prognostication capability of geosystems, special role and the influence of noises of different character on the active structured geosystems admitting self-organized critical behavior and processes of formation exponential spectra of capacity is noticed. In addition, standing apart of widely declared theses of 70-80 th of last century, and unlike the strange-attractor approach, the basic attention is paid to effects of noises and fluctuations upon large-scale dynamics of geosystems. As a result the problem of local forecast in up-to-date definition may be considered as a study of a response of active (excitable) structured geomedium on multifrequency spontaneous fluctuations and external actions. Attention is paid to some special features and essential factors of formation of focal zones and evolution processes, known from observations and solutions of basal equations of nonlinear dynamics. Strong relation of spontaneous emissions of lithosphere with dynamics of auto-structures and their complexes is underlined. In addition, blocky-hierarchic heterogeneous structure of lithosphere determines not only spatial characteristics of the fields of spontaneous emissions but also, to significant extent, their temporal and energetic characteristics.