Abstract
The article analyzes the key factors influencing pricing in the global oil market, conducted a retrospective analysis of its stages. It was noted that the vast majority of factors are closely interconnected, significantly correlated and dependent on each other. In this conditions, it became almost impossible to determine the actual degree of influence of each of them on the dynamics of oil quotations, which testified to the insufficient reliability of the factor analysis and the need to apply methods of technical analysis of securities at the index stage, in particular, analysis of time series with the isolation of trend, cycle and random components. A conclusion was made on the need to improve the quality of forecasting the dynamics of oil prices as an instrument to increase the efficiency of the functioning of the mechanism of the state regulation of the oil and gas complex, which made it possible to more reliably predict the oil and gas revenues of the budget, the main macroeconomic indicators, develop public programs, scenarios of long-term socio-economic development, etc.
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