On prediction, refutation, and explanatory reach: A consideration of the Interpersonal Theory of Suicidal Behavior

Abstract

Theory proposition, empirical evaluation, and resulting support or refutation are core pieces of the scientific process. These steps of theory-testing, however, can be complicated by relative rigidity and dogmatism, in combination with the logistical challenges inherent in conducting comprehensive, real-world tests of theories explicating complex scientific phenomena, especially rare ones. It may be argued that suicide is one such phenomenon, and one for which the field of psychology has struggled to develop satisfactory understanding. One leading theory of suicide, the Interpersonal Theory of Suicide, has garnered attention and, to a considerable degree, has weathered substantial scrutiny. Still, it is arguable that the theory has yet to be tested in full—that is, in accordance with all propositions originally put forth. In this effort, we sought to evaluate the current state of knowledge regarding the Interpersonal Theory of Suicide, as well as to suggest potential directions via which future work may proceed. We draw from the fields of philosophy, psychology, physics, and engineering in the hopes of engendering curiosity and critical thought about the assumptions researchers (ourselves included) bring to their work. We direct particular attention to the role of refutation in theory-testing; the supposed dichotomy of explanatory vs. algorithmic approaches; and the categorization of research programs as progressive vs. degenerative. In doing so, we hope not only to promote these ideas in the study of suicidal behavior but also to empiricists of all creeds and foci. We also include implications for suicide prevention efforts.