On Predicting the Long Run Behaviour of Nigerian Bank Stocks Prices: a Markov Chain Approach

Abstract

This study examines the long run behaviour of the closing prices of the Nigerian bank stocks using Markov Chain. A total of eight (8) Nigerian bank stocks were randomly selected and data on their daily closing prices between 1st January, 2004 and 29th May, 2013 were collected secondarily through cashcrasft website. Then, variations in daily closing prices were classified into three states Markov Chain of drop, rise and stable. If the closing at day t+1 is greater than that of the day t, it was classified as rise, if that of the day t+1 is less than that of the day t, it was classified as drop but when the closing price for day t is same as that of the day t+1, it was classified as stable. Based on these classifications, transition probabilities, the limiting distribution of the transition matrix as well as the steady state transition probabilities were computed for each stock. Finding suggests that despite the current situation in the market, there is still hope for Nigerian bank stocks as some of these bank stocks tend to experience an increase in price in the long run as shown by the results of the steady state probability. Although, this finding is very informative and crucial to investors, stock brokers and other regulator in this sector, this finding is subject to unforeseen circumstances such as change in government policy, among many other factors. Despite these limitations, it is hope that the results of this study will very useful to investors, intending investors and other relevant stakeholders who are involve in stock trading.