On Political Violence and its Avoidance

Abstract

This paper is an attempt to compile the most important findings from quantitative and empirical work on violence in order to derive policy conclusions from it. It is argued that the risk of war can either be reduced by preponderance or by trade and democratization. Likewise, the risk of rebellion and civil war can be reduced either by bloody and totalitarian repression, that is, by violence from above, or by democracy, which itself is promoted by prosperity and economic openness. Although research on the linkages between internal and external violence does not deliver a neat set of coherent findings, it seems that both kinds of violence are more likely to reinforce than to mitigate each other. International terrorism seems to stand apart from other types of violence in its causes and effects. But a capitalist peace strategy based on economic freedom and globalization, prosperity and democracy might not only permit reducing interstate war and rebellion, but also contribute to some containment of terrorism, that is, a capitalist peace strategy may prevent a spill-over from international terrorism to interstate war and, to a lesser degree, even to rebellion and civil violence.