Abstract
The foreign policy of states is often viewed through the prism of the geopolitical, geostrategic or geoeconomic determinants. It is forgotten that in addition to these factors, foreign policy also has a strong human, or personal, factor. This factor is especially evident in authoritarian regimes of the personalist type, in which decisions, including on foreign policy issues, are made by the leader or a narrow stratum of the elite alone. In this case, the personal factor and personal interests of the leader are not limited to other regulators (institutions, elections, etc.). A foreign policy centered on the interests of the first person in this case may differ significantly from what one would assume when analyzing state policy and the national interests of the country. Since power in Turkmenistan is in the nature of a personalist regime, the article attempts to explore, within the framework of the available (very limited) information, the foreign policy of this country from the perspective of the personal interests of the head of state and the Turkmen elite rather than those of the state. In addition to the theoretical framework of the study and a brief personal profile of both presidents, the article also provides examples relating to the two main factors of interest to the leader of the nation and his elite - economic profit and regime security. Comparing the regimes of the first and second president in foreign policy also demonstrates the continuity of the political culture and system in the country. The study shows that the Turkmen regime combines all features of the theoretical conceptions of personalist foreign policy if we look at them as an interrelated complex. The personal characteristic of the president, his almost unshakable position in decision-making, as well as the interests of his entourage, including his family, play a key role in it. On the other hand, the singularity of decision-making makes it easier for those foreign players who have the necessary information about the country’s leader and know how to lead him to the decision they want without regard to other interest groups or institutions in the country.
Highlights
Теория личности во внешней политике давно является предметом изучения, причем не только при анализе авторитарных режимов
Геддес выделила категорию персоналистских авторитарных режимов, которые отличаются тем, что принятие решений зависит во многом от личностей, особенно лидера или вождя[4]
The foreign policy of states is often viewed through the prism of the geopolitical, geostrategic or geoeconomic determinants
Summary
Внешняя политика государств зачастую рассматривается сквозь призму геополитических, геостратегических или геоэкономических детерминант соответствующей страны. Что помимо этих факторов внешняя политика имеет и сильный человеческий, или личностный, фактор. Сосредоточенная на интересах первого лица при этом может существенно отличаться от той, которую можно было бы предположить при анализе государственной политики и национальных интересов страны. Сравнение режимов первого и второго президента во внешней политике также демонстрирует преемственность политической культуры и системы в стране. Ключевую роль в ней играют личностная характеристика президента, его почти непоколебимая позиция при принятии решений, а также интересы его окружения, в том числе его семьи. С другой стороны, единоличность принятия решений облегчает ситуацию тем зарубежным игрокам, которые располагают необходимой информацией о лидере страны и знают, как подводить его к нужному для них решению без оглядки на другие группы интересов или институты в стране
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