On Metacognition: Overconfidence in Word Recall Prediction and Its Association with Psychotic Symptoms in Patients with Schizophrenia.

Abstract

Fifty-one participants with a diagnosis of schizophrenia were evaluated. The Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS) was used to assess the severity of psychiatric symptoms, and the subtest of metamemory included in the Executive Functions and Frontal Lobe-2 battery (BANFE-2) was used to evaluate overconfidence and underestimation errors, intrusion and perseverative response, total volume of recall, and Brief Functioning Assessment Scale (FAST) for social functioning. The strongest correlation is observed between overconfidence errors and the positive factor of the PANSS (r = 0.774, p < 0.001). For the enter model in the multiple linear regression (r = 0.78, r2 = 0.61; F = 24.57, p < 0.001), the only significant predictor was overconfidence errors. Our results highlight the relevance of a metacognitive bias of overconfidence, strongly correlated with psychotic symptoms, and support the hypothesis that metacognitive defects contribute to the failure to reject contradictory evidence. From our perspective, these findings align with current mechanistic models of schizophrenia that focus on the role of the prefrontal cortex.