On macroeconomic instability in commodity economy in the context of external shocks: some questions of theory and Russian experience

Abstract

The actual character of the research is based on the observation that the periods of financial instability during the last decade in Russia were determined by the specific features of the post-Soviet socio-economic model and their proper understanding is required for right choice of the instruments of anti-crisis policy. Such knowledge is becoming even more important under the oil shock and COVID-19 pandemic in the first half of 2020. The purpose is to provide systemic analysis of the crisis processes in the Russian economy in 2014-2016 as the combination of several interdependent economic processes specific for the large-scale resource export oriented economy. It raises the issue of potential recovery mechanism for such type of economy and such type of the crisis and analyses theoretical and methodological foundations for choice of anti-crisis policy instruments. The research methodology includes reference to the comparative study of systemic financial crises in South East Asia in 1997-1999 and Russian Federation in 2014-2016 and derivation of specific predictions of the third generation currency crises models which are relevant for the case of the Russian Federation in 2014-2016. The result includes the conclusions on the specific features of the potential recovery mechanism in such type of the crisis and the choice of anti-crisis policy instruments on different time horizons. It also outlines the issues for further research and open questions for macroeconomic policy debates.