On global wave height climatology and trends from multiplatform altimeter measurements and wave hindcast

Abstract

Reliable estimates of ocean surface waves and their long-term global trends are fundamentally important for numerous ocean engineering and geophysical applications. Nonetheless, it is scientifically and technically demanding to accurately identify such relatively small trends [O(0.1−1) cm yr−1] from wave data currently available. In 2022, Young and Ribal demonstrated that by changing the calibration method, multiplatform altimeter observations yield noticeable differences in wave height estimates and their trends. In this paper, we use our global wave hindcast as a baseline and confirm that observations calibrated relative to one another (i.e., “altimeter-altimeter” calibration) ultimately outperform traditionally “altimeter-buoy” calibrated data. The former leads to more consistent mean and extreme wave heights across simultaneously operating altimeters and consequently to a more homogeneous evolution of global sea states over the past several decades. The underlying reason is hypothesized to be that temporal inhomogeneities in long-term NDBC buoy records due to changes in buoy hardware and software over time introduce comparable inhomogeneities to long-term altimeter observations when the “altimeter-buoy” calibration is adopted. It is encouraging to observe that the global trends of mean and 90th-percentile wave heights over the period 1992-2019 from our hindcast and re-calibrated altimeter data are very close: approximately 0.3 cm yr−1. Nonetheless, the altimeter-based trend of 99th-percentile wave height, Hs99, is substantially-but-spuriously stronger mainly due to markedly growing availability of altimeter missions over time. Our work clearly demonstrates the power of third generation spectral wave models as diagnostics tools. Given the uncertainties embedded in buoy and satellite observations, wave modeling and global wave hindcasts can indeed guide these measurements. Further analysis of the underlying climate physics driving the interannual variability of ocean waves in wind-sea dominated regions is also presented.