Abstract
An approach is proposed to assessing the reliability of functioning of a complex water management system under the conditions of a long dry period. The approach involves the specification of scenarios of long-term changes in the annual runoff. A method of simulation of artificial series of inflow to elements of water management system is proposed. Criteria for the choice of estimated inflow series are substantiated. The results of water management and hydropower calculations for different scenarios (models) are discussed. Challenges that may face the water management complex of the Volga basin in extremely dry periods are formulated.
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