On Dynamic Relationship Among Oil Prices, Exchange Rate and Stock Prices in India

Abstract

This paper examines the long run and short run dynamics among oil prices, exchange rates and stock prices in India (one of the fastest growing emerging markets in the world) over the most recent 15 year period 1997-2011. Using Johansen’s Co integration test we find the existence of long run equilibrium relationship among oil market, foreign exchange market and stock market in India. The short term dynamics among the three markets are analyzed using Vector Autoregression (unrestricted as well as VECM), VAR causality/Block Exogeneity Wald test and Impulse response analysis. We find unidirectional causality from stock market to oil market. An impulse originating in foreign exchange market results in a profound drop in stock as well as oil prices and is statistically significant for about three weeks in oil market and two weeks in stock market. The domino effect of up-waves in stock market is positive for oil market and remains statistically significant for few weeks, while being of opposite tendency in foreign exchange market. The optimism of oil market bulls up stock market in India while creating bearish trends in foreign exchange market. An assessment of impulse response graphs in pre-crisis, during crisis and post crisis period exhibits that the riposte of all the variables to a shock generating from within stays for a relatively longer period during crisis as compared to pre and post crisis period. These results have wider implications for market integration, policy makers and investors at large. Since these markets are integrated rather than segmented, from the perspective of investments, risk reduction cannot be achieved in the long run by holding assets from these markets in the same portfolio. However diversification opportunities are not ruled out in the short run. Stock market turns out to be the leader in all the three markets especially after the recent financial crisis. Rapidly rising stock prices in India signal the expectation of higher economic growth ahead. If the stock prices get trapped in a bubble, however, oil prices will overshoot in relation to economic fundamentals.