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Abstract
Existing research on credit risk contagion of supply chain finance pays more attention to the influence of network internal structure on the process of risk contagion. The spread of COVID-19 has had a huge impact on the supply chain, with a large number of enterprises experiencing difficulties in operation, resulting in increased credit risks in supply chain finance. Under the impact of the epidemic, this paper explores the transmission speed and steady state of credit risk when the supply chain finance network is affected by external impact so that we can have a more complete understanding of the ability of supply chain finance to resist risks. The simulation results show that external shocks of different degrees will increase the number of initial infected enterprises and lead to the increase in credit risk contagion speed but have no significant impact on network steady state; the speed of credit risk contagion is positively correlated with network complexity but not significantly affected by network size; core enterprises infected will increase the rate of credit risk contagion. The intensity of policy intervention has obvious curative effect on the risk caused by external shock. When the supply chain financial network is affected by external shocks, the intensity, time, and pertinence of policy response can effectively prevent the credit risk contagion.
Highlights
Since the outbreak in 2020, COVID-19 has spread to 191 countries and regions, with more than 200 million confirmed cases and 4.4 million deaths
With the continuous advancement of financial globalization, network complexity is strengthened [6], while making the network more efficient, it makes it more vulnerable to default and bankruptcy [7]. e credit default of one participant will cause losses of other members and eventually lead to credit risk contagion throughout the supply chain network [8,9,10,11]. e spread of COVID-19 has significantly increased the network credit risk of supply chain finance. e supply chain finance plays a role in resisting the external impact and effectively offsetting losses caused by the COVID-19 outbreak; it is important to study the influence of external impact on supply chain financial credit risk infection and corresponding policies
In addition to internal factors, external shocks have an impact on the process of credit risk contagion. erefore, this paper mainly studies the impact of external shocks (COVID-19) on the credit risk contagion process of supply chain finance
Summary
Since the outbreak in 2020, COVID-19 has spread to 191 countries and regions, with more than 200 million confirmed cases and 4.4 million deaths. Chain finance integrates logistics, capital flow, and information flow and forms a corresponding network structure. E credit default of one participant will cause losses of other members and eventually lead to credit risk contagion throughout the supply chain network [8,9,10,11]. E spread of COVID-19 has significantly increased the network credit risk of supply chain finance. E supply chain finance plays a role in resisting the external impact and effectively offsetting losses caused by the COVID-19 outbreak; it is important to study the influence of external impact on supply chain financial credit risk infection and corresponding policies.
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