On confidence intervals centred on bootstrap smoothed estimators

Abstract

Bootstrap smoothed (bagged) estimators have been proposed as an improvement on estimators found after preliminary data‐based model selection. Efron derived a widely applicable formula for a delta method approximation to the standard deviation of the bootstrap smoothed estimator. He also considered a confidence interval centred on the bootstrap smoothed estimator, with width proportional to the estimate of this standard deviation. Recently, Kabaila and Wijethunga assessed the performance of this confidence interval in the scenario of two nested linear regression models, the full model and the simpler model, for the case of known error variance and preliminary model selection using a hypothesis test. They found that the performance of this confidence interval was not substantially better than the usual confidence interval based on the full model, with the same minimum coverage. We extend this assessment to the case of unknown error variance by deriving a computationally convenient exact formula for the ideal (i.e., in the limit as the number of bootstrap replications diverges to infinity) delta method approximation to the standard deviation of the bootstrap smoothed estimator. Our results show that, unlike the known error variance case, there are circumstances in which this confidence interval has attractive properties.