On combination rule in Dempster–Shafer theory using OWA‐based soft likelihood functions and its applications in environmental impact assessment

Abstract

Dempster–Shafer theory (DST) was presented as an effective mathematical tool to represent uncertainty. Its significant innovation is to allow the allocation of the belief of mass to sets or intervals, and it becomes a valuable method in the field of decision making and evaluation when accurate information is not available or when knowledge is expressed subjectively by humans. A crucial research issue in DST is the combination of multi-sources of evidence. In this paper, a novel combination rule for Dempster–Shafer structures is developed based on ordered weighted average (OWA)-based soft likelihood functions proposed by Yager. First, the belief intervals, including the belief measures and plausibility measures, of all the hypotheses in the frame of discernment (FOD) are calculated. Second, the representative value of belief interval is defined based on golden rule introduced by Yager. Third, the soft likelihood value of each hypothesis is calculated based on the proposed OWA-based soft likelihood function for belief interval, which can be considered as the combined evidence. The final evaluation results can be employed for practical applications, such as decision making and evaluation. In addition, the improved evidence combination rule is presented which takes into account the weight of evidence. Several illustrative examples are conducted to manifest the use of the developed methods. Finally, an application for environmental impact assessment is given to demonstrate the usefulness of the developed combination rule in DST.