On Coherent Conditional Probabilities and Disintegrations

Abstract

Existence of coherent extensions of coherent conditional probabilities is one of the major merits of de Finetti's theory of probability. However, coherent extensions which meet some special property, like σ-additivity or disintegrability, can fail to exist. An example is given where a coherent and σ-additive conditional probability cannot be extended preserving both σ-additivity and coherence. Motivated by such example, conditions are provided in order that a coherent and σ-additive conditional probability admits a coherent and σ-additive extension. Moreover, conditions are given for the existence of disintegrations, possibly σ-additive, of a probability along a partition.