Abstract
Given the harsh reality faced by the global effort to contain coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and the virtual impossibility of its worldwide eradication in the foreseeable future, global human coexistence with fast mutating severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) may have to occur, for the time being, irrespective of the wishes and aspirations of our people. Therefore, for China, the risk associated with small to medium scale outbreaks induced by imported cases and the corresponding need to continuously and promptly suppress domestic infections would persist for a certain period of time. However, such reality would not imply that we can deviate from our existing effective COVID-Zero strategy on entry-exit quarantine measures and community non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) containment measures and embrace certain “open-up” strategies without reservation, resting solely on the hypothesis of the success of herd immunity induced by vaccination advocated by certain western countries. In this article, we found that even in a highly underestimated outbreak scenario under the most optimistic assumptions, once China adopts the control and prevention strategies of some typical western countries, the number of the daily new confirmed cases in China would likely rise up to hundreds of thousands of cases, and among which >10,000 cases would present with severe symptoms. Particularly, the number of standing severe cases would exceed the peak number nationwide in early 2020 within 1–2 days, which would have a devastating impact on the medical system of China and cause a great disaster within the nation.
Highlights
Given the harsh reality faced by the global effort to contain coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and the virtual impossibility of its worldwide eradication in the foreseeable future, global human coexistence with fast mutating severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) may have to occur, for the time being, irrespective of the wishes and aspirations of our people
The population of the eastern region, which includes the provincial-level administrative divisions (PLADs) of Hebei, Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, Guangdong, Hainan, Beijing, Tianjin, and Shanghai accounts for 39.9% of the total population, which is 563,300,220 [1], yielding a much higher population density of 661 people/km2 [1,3,4]
We can see that even with the aforementioned over-optimistic assumptions, the size of daily new infection in China would be very likely of hundreds of thousands if China adopted the strategies in these reference countries
Summary
Given the harsh reality faced by the global effort to contain coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and the virtual impossibility of its worldwide eradication in the foreseeable future, global human coexistence with fast mutating severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) may have to occur, for the time being, irrespective of the wishes and aspirations of our people. For China, the risk associated with small to medium scale outbreaks induced by imported cases and the corresponding need to continuously and promptly suppress domestic infections would persist for a certain period of time. Such reality would not imply that we can deviate from our existing effective COVID-Zero strategy on entry-exit quarantine measures and community non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) containment measures and embrace certain “open-up” strategies without reservation, resting solely on the hypothesis of the success of herd immunity induced by vaccination advocated by certain western countries. The number of standing severe cases would exceed the peak number nationwide in early 2020 within 1–2 days, which would have a devastating impact on the medical system of China and cause a great disaster within the nation
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