On better assessing the future outcomes of ‘grand, world-changing schema’: Seeing present EU and globalisation backlashes as to-be-expected

Abstract

Are large-scale, large impact, rare events such as the present, perhaps existential, backlashes against globalisation and the European Union statistical and conceptual ‘tail events’ or are they to-be-expected consequents of ideas in action — schema — that have been repeatedly tried, and in various iterations, have repeatedly failed? This paper uses comparative holistic assessment to argue the latter. Several implications for doing better risk assessment of such large-scale, large impact, rare events, with a historical perspective, are presented.