Abstract
Abstract. Several recently published reports have suggested that semi-stationary linear-cloud formations might be causally precursory to earthquakes. We examine the report of Guangmeng and Jie (2013), who claim to have predicted the 2012 M 6.0 earthquake in the Po Valley of northern Italy after seeing a satellite photograph (a digital image) showing a linear-cloud formation over the eastern Apennine Mountains of central Italy. From inspection of 4 years of satellite images we find numerous examples of linear-cloud formations over Italy. A simple test shows no obvious statistical relationship between the occurrence of these cloud formations and earthquakes that occurred in and around Italy. All of the linear-cloud formations we have identified in satellite images, including that which Guangmeng and Jie (2013) claim to have used to predict the 2012 earthquake, appear to be orographic – formed by the interaction of moisture-laden wind flowing over mountains. Guangmeng and Jie (2013) have not clearly stated how linear-cloud formations can be used to predict the size, location, and time of an earthquake, and they have not published an account of all of their predictions (including any unsuccessful predictions). We are skeptical of the validity of the claim by Guangmeng and Jie (2013) that they have managed to predict any earthquakes.
Highlights
The old notion that earthquakes might be preceded by peculiar weather has recently been seemingly supported by several reports that unusual cloud formations might be causally precursory to earthquakes
After identifying linear-cloud formations in infrared satellite images, Guangmeng and Jie (2013) predicted three earthquakes before their occurrences, and they communicated their predictions with colleagues prior to their occurrences
We obtain the same infrared satellite images that Guangmeng and Jie obtained from the Meteo Company SAT24, but instead of focusing on a short duration of time before the 20 May 2012 M6.0 earthquake, as Guangmeng and Jie did, we examine 4 years of satellite images (January 2010–December 2013)
Summary
The old notion that earthquakes might be preceded by peculiar weather has recently been seemingly supported by several reports that unusual cloud formations might be causally precursory to earthquakes. Many of these reports have identified linear arrangements of clouds that seem to persist for several hours in a more or less stationary location near earthquake epicenters. After identifying linear-cloud formations in infrared satellite images, Guangmeng and Jie (2013) predicted three earthquakes before their occurrences, and they communicated their predictions with colleagues prior to their occurrences. In the case of an Italy earthquake, Guangmeng and Jie observed linear cloud formations on 22–23 April 2012. 08:00 23:00 19:00 12:00 06:00 (day 23) 06:00 (day 6) 15:00 17:00 01:00 (day 25) 22:00 10:00 (day 15) 21:00 06:00 16:00 08:00 (day 8) 22:00 06:00 10:00 (day 29) 17:00 13:00 04:00 (day 10) 22:00 04:00
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