On a kinetic opinion formation model for pre-election polling.

Abstract

Motivated by recent successes in model-based pre-election polling, we propose a kinetic model for opinion formation which includes voter demographics and socio-economic factors like age, sex, ethnicity, education level, income and other measurable factors like behaviour in previous elections or referenda as a key driver in the opinion formation dynamics. The model is based on Toscani's kinetic opinion formation model (Toscani G. 2006 Kinetic models of opinion formation. Commun. Math. Sci. 4, 481-496.) and the leader-follower model of Düring et al. (Düring B. et al. 2009 Boltzmann and Fokker-Planck equations modelling opinion formation in the presence of strong leaders. Proc. R. Soc. A 465, 3687-3708.), and leads to a system of coupled Boltzmann-type equations and associated, approximate Fokker-Planck-type systems. Numerical examples using data from general elections in the UK show the effect different demographics have on the opinion formation process and the outcome of elections. This article is part of the theme issue 'Kinetic exchange models of societies and economies'.