Omnibalancing in China-Russia relations: regime survival and the specter of domestic threats as an impetus for bilateral alignment

Abstract

ABSTRACT Among analysts of China-Russia relations, it has been common to assume that bilateral rapprochement has primarily been rooted in geopolitical, security, and balance-of-power considerations. This article argues that the corresponding Realist theoretical approaches can explain some important incentives for Sino-Russian rapprochement, but struggle to account for how substantive bilateral alignment has actually become. The article posits that a particularly useful theoretical approach for examining the motives underlying Sino-Russian strategic alignment is “Omnibalancing” – a variation of balance-of-power theory that combines considerations of system-level balancing with a simultaneous focus on both leaderships’ prioritization of domestic threats and regime security. Due to the increasing convergence of their authoritarian regime types, a major factor accounting for the dynamism of China-Russia strategic cooperation has been both governments’ shared concern for regime survival/legitimacy, and their concrete policy cooperation in recent years has reflected their preoccupation with shoring up regime security against domestic challenges to authoritarian rule.