Old versus young: How much do countries spend on social benefits? Deterministic modeling for government expenditure

Abstract

The increasing levels of population ageing have led to debates questioning the spending hierarchy granted by governments to social benefits. In this article, we use a Lotka–Voltera competition model based on differential equations to investigate the relationships between old age pensions, family/children benefits, sickness/health care, and unemployment benefits. The analysis focuses on Austria, Germany, and Switzerland between 2007 and 2018 with the aim of better understanding whether and when priority is given to benefits in favour of the older versus younger cohorts of the population. Findings for the German-speaking European triangle show that an intergenerational conflict is significantly present in government expenditure. In particular, old age pensions and family and children benefits mostly interact in a predator–prey relationship that favours old age pensions, while expenditure for sickness and health care predominates the scenario.