Oil-importing optimal decision considering country risk with extreme events: A multi-objective programming approach

Abstract

From perspective of energy security, this study focuses on oil-importing optimal decision based on multi-objective programming approach. Different from other models, country risk is considered as the main objective to minimize risk exposure of importing disruption. What is more, this model connects emergency management with programming, and optimal decisions are solved under different scenarios of emergency, where one given kind of extreme events break out and impact exporting regions to different degrees. Specifically, two main steps are involved in the proposed methodology, including impact analysis of the extreme events and optimization programming under scenarios of emergency. The first step is to statistically analyze whether and to what extent the given extreme events impact country risk of oil-exporting sources. Secondly, a multi-objective programming model is formulated, and optimal decision is simulated under different scenarios with extreme events. For illustration, China's oil-importing optimization is performed to verify the practicability of the novel methodology. The experimental results suggest that wars in Middle East may significantly enhance country risk of Middle East; and China's oil-importing optimal plan should be changed correspondingly. This further indicates that the proposed methodology can be utilized as an effective tool to adjust oil-importing plan according to certain extreme events.