Oil Wealth, Risk Acceptance, and the Seizure of Power

Abstract

AbstractThough oil wealth is associated with poor economic performance, repression, civil war, and other maladies, the resource is also associated with increased regime durability. We explore this paradox by investigating the influence of oil wealth on coups d’état. Prior findings on the relationship between oil and coups have been inconsistent, a trend we argue is attributable to the varied and sometimes invalid specification of the dependent variable. We theorize that the potential payoff of coups in oil-rich states incentivizes elites to be more risk acceptant when considering coup attempts. We consequently anticipate coup attempts are more likely in oil-rich states, but under conditions that are less likely to succeed. An assessment of a global sample offers strong evidence that oil-rich states are “cursed” with more attempted coups. However, oil rents are not associated with more successful coups. These results explain the curse/durability paradox and point to an understudied aspect of the oil curse and authoritarian survival.