Oil Temperature Prediction of Long-Distance Hot-Crude-Oil Pipeline Based on GA-BP Optimization

Abstract

Abstract Due to the high pour point of the oil products transported in the long-distance high wax crude oil pipeline, in order to ensure the operation safety, it is necessary to adopt heating transmission technology, so as to ensure that the oil temperature along the pipeline is 3–5 °C higher than the pour point, that is to say, the oil temperature is the most important operation parameter of the long-distance hot oil pipeline, and the accurate prediction and control of the oil temperature is the premise of the pipeline safety optimization. Aiming at the problems of large prediction error and poor applicability of the previous theoretical formula, this paper studies the establishment of oil temperature prediction model by using data mining algorithms such as Back Propagation (BP) neural network, and improves the prediction efficiency and accuracy of the model by using Genetic Algorithm (GA) optimization. The correlation coefficient formula is used to calculate the influence coefficient of oil temperature, ground temperature, pipeline transportation and other parameters on the inlet oil temperature of the downstream station, so as to obtain the input parameters of the model. The actual production data training model is downloaded through SCADA system, and the prediction accuracy of the control model is ±0.5 °C. Compared with BP model and other theoretical formulas, the accuracy and efficiency of GA-BP oil temperature prediction model are greatly improved, and the adaptability is better. The GA-BP oil temperature prediction model trained according to the actual production data can be effectively applied to the future pipeline big data platform, which lays a theoretical foundation for the intelligent control of the pipeline.