Abstract
Several oil spill simulation models exist in the literature, which are used worldwide to simulate the evolution of an oil slick created from marine traffic, petroleum production, or other sources. These models may range from simple parametric calculations to advanced, new-generation, operational, three-dimensional numerical models, coupled to meteorological, hydrodynamic, and wave models, forecasting in high-resolution and with high precision the transport and fate of oil. This study presents a review of the transport and oil weathering processes and their parameterization and critically examines eighteen state-of-the-art oil spill models in terms of their capacity (a) to simulate these processes, (b) to consider oil released from surface or submerged sources, (c) to assimilate real-time field data for model initiation and forcing, and (d) to assess uncertainty in the produced predictions. Based on our review, the most common oil weathering processes involved are spreading, advection, diffusion, evaporation, emulsification, and dispersion. The majority of existing oil spill models do not consider significant physical processes, such as oil dissolution, photo-oxidation, biodegradation, and vertical mixing. Moreover, timely response to oil spills is lacking in the new generation of oil spill models. Further improvements in oil spill modeling should emphasize more comprehensive parametrization of oil dissolution, biodegradation, entrainment, and prediction of oil particles size distribution following wave action and well blow outs.
Highlights
Due to the worldwide increase in oil/gas demand and the dwindling in onshore reserves, offshore oil/gas production has significantly increased its potential since the 1990s
In SIMAP [38,39], the pseudo-component approach is followed for modeling oil weathering processes, including evaporation, the dissolution and the toxic effects of lower molecular weight induced by the aromatic compounds to ecosystems can be more accurately estimated
Mackay [60] and Mackay et al [22] developed an early model of wave entrainment, based on the fraction of the sea surface subjected to dispersion and the fraction of the entrained oil containing fairly small droplets to be constantly dispersed in the water column
Summary
Due to the worldwide increase in oil/gas demand and the dwindling in onshore reserves, offshore oil/gas production has significantly increased its potential since the 1990s. Spreading is a process with specific model limitations, as it depends on oil characteristics and ocean state, and existing algorithms only partially approximate the actual surface area of real spills. Simecek-Beatty and Lehr [16] used Langmuir circulation models to approximate the merging of oil streaks and modify existing oil spreading parametrizations by estimating a spreading surface area correction due to Langmuir effects Their model has been validated with measurements from the 1990s North Sea field experiments, and as it requires limited data, it could be successfully incorporated into operational response oil spill models. Another source of uncertainty is that, for computational purposes, oil spill models divide the slick into Lagrangian elements (LEs) or particles and track their movement, which does not directly provide an oil concentration or thickness at specific locations. The approaches followed by Lagrangian oil spill models to compute oil surface area or thickness adds further uncertainty in the spreading estimation
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