Oil shocks, policy uncertainty and earnings surprises

Abstract

The study utilizes a structural VAR model to understand the connections among oil shocks, policy uncertainty and aggregate earnings in US. We find that the positive innovations in US oil supply increase the aggregate earnings. A rise in the US policy uncertainty decreases the aggregate earnings. After 2007 with the shale oil development in US, the earnings responses to the US oil supply shocks has increased. Over time shocks to US oil supply reduce the policy uncertainty. The development of US oil production is associated with the increase in income and the enhancement on political and economy security in US. Policy uncertainty plays an important role in the transmission of oil shocks to the earnings. The structural oil price shocks explain around 35% of the overall variations in the policy uncertainty in the long run and cause long swings in the policy uncertainty. The direct effects of oil shocks on the aggregate earnings are amplified by the endogenous responses of policy uncertainty.