Abstract
After the oil spill disaster occurred in 2019, various events of tar balls reaching the Brazilian coast and archipelagos have been reported. The hypothesis here is that the oil/waste dumped in international waters by ships on-route to Cape of Good Hope is reaching the Brazilian coast. On that account, 30-year probabilistic simulations were used to estimate the probability of dumped oil residue reaching the Brazilian coast. The simulations considered three Zones following the South Atlantic route. The results have shown that up to 28.5 % of large ships could dump oil on-route. Inside the Brazilian Exclusive Economic Zone, the probability of dumped oil/waste reaching the coastline is about 62 % and quickly decreases for Dumping Zones 2 and 3. Equatorial and Northeast shores of Brazil are the most vulnerable to oceanic dumping when compared to other regions.
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