Abstract
Despite logical premises than the constant-dollar price of oil will surpass and sustain all-time peaks, there is empirical evidence that the Malthus-Hotelling vision does not describe what really happens to production, consumption, and prices of natural resource commodities. Neither oil nor any important internationally traded commodity has ever shown a sustained upward price trend lasting more than a couple of decades. The payoff is just beginning on the investments, both in hardware and in sophistication, that society made over the last decade to conserve energy. The buyer's market in crude oil should continue for a number of years because these investments are reducing demand, making demand more flexible, and making supply more competitive.
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