Abstract
In this work author is using methodological approach developed by W. S. Jevons and A. L Chizhevsky. Years of solar cycles were numbered in prescribed astrophysics manner, combined and compared against average values of Brent oil price. Grouping of data by years of solar cycle allowed developing regressive polynomial model where Brent crude oil price1 is dependent variable and number of respective years in the solar cycle is independent. Resulting R-squared value is equal to 0.9897. This model allows forecasting of prices on oil basing solely on year number in solar cycle. Model suggests that 2020’s Brent Crude price will decrease to USD 48.798 level per barrel and forecasted values of Crude Brent for 2021 and 2022 are USD 47.957 and USD 61.175 per barrel respectively.
Highlights
Years of solar cycles were numbered in prescribed astrophysics manner, combined and compared against average values of Brent oil price
It goes without saying that oil price forecast has gained high relevance
Forecast was based on the results of studying ties between oil prices and annual average sunspots numbers (Wolf numbers) between 1861 and 2015
Summary
In this work author is using methodological approach developed by W. Years of solar cycles were numbered in prescribed astrophysics manner, combined and compared against average values of Brent oil price. Grouping of data by years of solar cycle allowed developing regressive polynomial model where Brent crude oil price is dependent variable and number of respective years in the solar cycle is independent. This model allows forecasting of prices on oil basing solely on year number in solar cycle. Model suggests that 2020’s Brent Crude price will decrease to USD 48.798 level per barrel and forecasted values of Crude Brent for 2021 and 2022 are USD. 47.957 and USD 61.175 per barrel respectively
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