Oil price uncertainty and enterprise total factor productivity: Evidence from China

Abstract

Global oil price uncertainty may affect the enterprise total factor productivity (TFP). Considering the unbalanced relationship between the rapid growth in the Chinese economy and its relatively low TFP and China is the largest net oil importer, this paper employs the SYS-GMM to effectively analyze the impact of oil price uncertainty on Chinese enterprise TFP, as well as its mechanism. Based on firm-level data of listed Chinese enterprises from 2010 to 2019, we find significant evidence that oil price shocks have a detrimental influence on enterprise TFP. This influence is mediated by technical innovation and resource allocation. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that oil price uncertainty has a stronger negative impact on enterprise TFP state-owned firms, or firms in small businesses, secondary industries, northeastern heavy industries, low-competition sectors, and regions where marketization is sluggish. Moreover, when the control of retail oil prices is eased, the negative impact becomes more evident. Our findings can provide advice on policies or to researchers regarding the considerable uncertainty of energy prices and increasingly importance of TFP.