Oil price shocks in a portfolio-balance model

Abstract

In the 1970s oil price increases were often associated with downward pressure on the foreign exchange value of the dollar. In order to identify the factors generating this association, we examine an oil price shock in a portfolio-balance framework where a wealth transfer is generated by altered current account positions. We show that the exchange-rate impact of higher oil prices depends importantly on the asset prefernces of both oil importers and oil exporters, as well as exchange rate expectations, which are influenced by countries' abilities to adjust to higher oil prices.