Oil price shocks, economic policy uncertainty and China’s trade: A quantitative structural analysis

Dynamic spillovers of oil price shocks and economic policy uncertainty

Economic uncertainty shocks and China's commodity futures returns: A time-varying perspective

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to investigate the mechanism of transmitting economic policy uncertainty (EPU) shocks to capital structure.Design/methodology/approachThe authors adopt a novel approach that bridges the asset pricing implications of EPU and the debt-financing decisions of Chinese firms by introducing a variable “policy-risk-induced equity return” (PRER). PRER is the product of the EPU beta and the EPU shock. Differentiating firms as per the signs of the EPU beta helps to shed light on the deep questions of whether their respective leverage targets and speeds of adjustment are different and how the targets and speeds are determined.FindingsThe empirical evidence shows that it is the equity market that channels EPU shocks to capital structure through PRER in China. Firms with positive (negative) EPU betas have PRER impact negatively (positively) the leverage target, conforming to the market-timing theory. EPU and non-policy uncertainty shocks cause the speed of adjustment to change over time. Overall, the intertemporal relation between EPU and leverage is negative. These results are robust to alternative leverage measures and after controlling for non-policy uncertainty shocks and conventional firm characteristics and have implications for academic research, policymaking, market stability, and corporate financing.Originality/valueThis study is the first to probe for, and provide insights into, the underlying reason why EPU impacts capital structure by connecting asset pricing to corporate financing for a large sample of Chinese publicly traded firms.

PurposeThis paper aims to investigate the effect of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) shocks on Indian equity market sectors. The effect of domestic (Indian) and foreign (USA) EPU shocks is examined on ten major Bombay Stock Exchange sectors.Design/methodology/approachThe study uses data covering the period from September 2005 to July 2023 and uses the methodology of quantile regression to investigate the heterogenous response of stock market sectors under diverse market conditions explained through the analysis of conditional quantiles distribution.FindingsThe results demonstrate that domestic and foreign EPU shocks negatively affect most of the sectors in bearish market conditions. Industrials, commodities, utilities, consumer discretionary and financial services are the most affected sectors by domestic EPU. However, the information technology sector is found to be immune to domestic EPU shocks but negatively affected by foreign EPU shocks. On the other hand, energy, financial services and fast-moving consumer goods sectors are found to be immune to foreign EPU shocks but are negatively affected by domestic EPU shocks.Practical implicationsUnderstanding the heterogeneous response of different sectors to EPU shocks could help investors and portfolio managers identify portfolio diversification opportunities.Originality/valueThis study makes an inaugural attempt to examine the responses of Indian stock market sectors to domestic and foreign EPU shocks using the approach of quantile regression and unveils the previously unexamined diverse reactions of Indian stock market sectors to EPU shocks originating from both India and USA.

This paper focuses on the impact of economic policy uncertainty on international asset allocation and international capital flows. Our results show that economic policy uncertainty shocks have a negative impact on the international asset allocation, which can be explained from the real economic activity channel and the expectation channel. We also explore a full fledge of country level heterogeneities about the economic policy uncertainty shocks on international asset allocation. Specifically, good institutional quality, transparent information, good information access to the international financial market and bilateral informational link help to alleviate the negative effect that economic policy uncertainty shock does to asset allocation. And a healthy public and external sector also help to alleviate the negative effect. While the importance of government in the economy amplifies the negative effect of economic policy uncertainty shocks to asset allocation. JEL classification numbers: E44, G11, G15. Keywords: Economic policy uncertainty, Global fund allocation, Institutional quality, Global imbalance.

Evidence shows that economic policy uncertainty (EPU) shocks directly impact the lending rate dynamics and the effects differ, depending on the persistence of the economic policy uncertainty shock. The persistently rising (declining) EPU shock leads to persistent increase (decrease) in the lending rates. This finding implies that the persistence of the EPU shocks matters for the evolution of the lending rates. In addition, evidence shows that the actual rise in lending rate exceeds the counterfactual due to the repo rate tightening shocks, when the elevated EPU channel is operational in the model. This suggests that the elevated EPU amplifies the increase in the lending rate to positive repo rate shock. By contrast, the negative EPU channel dampens the increases in lending rate to positive repo rate shocks.

This paper proposes a framework for examining the interaction between stock market volatilities and economic uncertainty shocks, aiming to understand better the influence of economic uncertainty shocks on the Chinese stock market. The major empirical results include the followings. First, the economic policy uncertainty shocks push the Chinese stock volatility up, increasing the market risk. A 1‐standard‐deviation shock of economic policy uncertainty will enhance the stock volatility of the two composite indices by approximately 7% in 12 months. Second, the stock volatility reacted more intensely to fiscal and monetary economic policy uncertainty shocks, with a 1‐standard‐deviation shock that can enhance the stock volatility of the two composite indices by more than 10% in 12 months. Third, different stock indices exhibit different patterns of cumulative impulse responses, and the reaction of the volatility of the SSE real estate index to economic policy uncertainty shocks is more significantly intense than other indices. Besides, we have proved the robustness of empirical results by reestimating the models with a lag order of 2. Overall, our research results can provide policy and managerial insights for the sustainable development of the Chinese stock market and beyond.

Stock markets augment industries by raising and circulating capital in the economic system. This article examines the relationship between economic policy uncertainty (EPU) shocks and stock market development (SMD) in China. To this end, we utilize a novel EPU index the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL), and the Breitung-Candelon spectral causality approaches. The empirical outcomes suggest that positive (negative) shocks of EPU significantly decrease (increase) China’s SMD. The spectral causality approach confirms the lead-lag relationships among EPU shocks, stock market liquidity, banking sector development, savings, and trade openness. To propel the size of China’s stock market, the concerned authorities should strive to appease high EPU and ensure stability in macroeconomic and financial dynamics. JEL Classification: G11, G12, G15.

We examine the extent to which foreign economic policy uncertainty shocks are transmitted via the capital inflows, credit conditions and business confidence channels to impact South African GDP growth. Evidence shows that heightened foreign economic policy uncertainties deter both debt and equity inflows into the domestic economy, lowers business confidence, tighten credit conditions. These effects reduce GDP growth. There is a presence of endogenous credit cycles or the financial accelerator mechanism in propagating the initial economic policy uncertainty shock. The tightening in credit conditions can result in higher external premiums for raising capital in financial markets. Furthermore, banking and non-banking flows decline in response to heightened foreign policy uncertainty shocks. Positive economic policy uncertainty shocks have asymmetric effects on equity inflows depending on the size of the shock. Evidence suggests that elevated foreign economic policy uncertainty deters equity and debt inflows into South Africa. Equity inflows amplify the tightening of credit conditions compared to debt inflows. Equity and debt inflows propagate the adverse effects of heightened economic policy uncertainty via tight credit conditions. The implication is that firms with poorer indicators of creditworthiness will be more constrained than those which are creditworthy, and this can negatively affect investment and growth.

Economic policy uncertainty shocks, economic activity, and exchange rate adjustments

Corporate risk-taking in developed countries: The influence of economic policy uncertainty and macroeconomic conditions

The transmission of US economic policy uncertainty shocks to Asian and global financial markets

Estimating a large‐scale factor‐augmented vector autoregressive model for 18 Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development member countries, we quantify the global effects of economic policy uncertainty shocks. More specifically, we check whether the signs, the magnitude, and the persistence profile are consistent with the literature on the real and financial sector effects of uncertainty. In that respect, we compare the impacts of a U.S. and a Euro area policy uncertainty shock. According to our results, an increase in economic policy uncertainty has a strong negative impact on economic activity (gross domestic product), consumer prices, equity prices, and interest rates. Uncertainty shocks cause deeper recessions in Continental Europe (except Germany) than in Anglo‐Saxon countries. U.S. uncertainty shocks have a bigger impact than those for the Euro area. Economic policy uncertainty does not only affect that country where the shock originates but also has large cross‐border effects. We also find a high degree of synchronization among the responses of national variables to a (foreign) uncertainty shock, indicating evidence of an international business cycle. With respect to the responses of national long‐term interest rates to an economic policy uncertainty shock, our results reveal a strong “North‐South” divide within the Euro area with rates decreasing less significantly in the South. Moreover, economic policy uncertainty shocks emerging in one region quickly raise uncertainty outside the region of origin. (JELC32, F42, D80)

This study examines if economic policy uncertainty in the U.S. has any effect on the returns on stock markets in the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) countries. The current study also investigates how stock market returns in the four countries respond to the U.S. economic policy uncertainty shock. The Granger causality tests are also performed to determine if economic policy uncertainty cause the returns on the four stock markets. The results show that the U.S. economic policy uncertainty negatively affect stock market returns in Brazil, India and Russia; this negative effect is statistically significant at the 10% level for Brazil and at the 1% level for India and Russia. Stock returns in China are also negatively affected by the U.S. economic policy uncertainty; however, this effect is not statistically significant. The negative effect of economic policy uncertainty on stock market returns becomes statistically insignificant for Brazil and India controlling for the SP the coefficient for Russia is still statistically significant but at the 10% level.

Time-varying characteristics of the simultaneous interactions between economic uncertainty, international oil prices and GDP: A novel approach for Germany