Oil Price Shocks and Macroeconomic Outcomes; Fresh Evidences from a scenario-based NK-DSGE analysis for oil-exporting countries

Abstract

Macroeconomic performances are extremely affected by unexpected oil price shocks in oil-exporting countries. Monetary rules rarely work properly in this environment. Therefore, determining the appropriate rules to reduce macroeconomic volatilities is essential. This study mainly aims to evaluate the oil price shock on macroeconomic variables through the lens of the new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (NK-DSGE) model for oil-exporting economies. The proposed model contains various components including households, firms, the central bank, government, external, and oil sectors as well as some real and nominal frictions and calibrates for an oil-exporting economy, Iran. We have designed an account called a consolidated account by aggregating the government budget, the balance of payments account, and entering the foreign currency. Three novel scenarios have also been developed by combining various rules including exchange rate regimes, inflation targeting, and the oil export revenues in our study. The findings imply that oil price shocks coupled with the rise in oil revenues result in a broadening of the monetary base, and eventually leads to liquidity growth and higher inflation rates. Moreover, such an oil price shock leads to a depreciation in the real exchange rate and a decline in economic competitiveness in all scenarios. Therefore, monetary rules-regardless of the exchange rate regime would lead to a lack of competitiveness with varying degrees of intensity. Our findings suggest that the sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) could be utilized to cushion the economy from external oil price shocks in oil-exporting countries.