Oil–gas price relationships on three continents: Disruptions and equilibria

Abstract

In this paper, we revisit traditional gas pricing formulas and show the ever-changing relationships between natural gas and oil prices in Europe, the United States, and Japan between 2009 and 2021. The results suggest a stronger oil–gas link for all investigated markets after 2019, significantly impacted by fundamental supply and demand factors. However, the strength of the equilibria link differs across markets due to different price formation processes under the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukraine war. For Japanese LNG prices, our results imply an enduring impact of oil-price indexation with a tight link to monthly crude prices. TTF and monthly oil prices enter a temporary equilibrium in times of high market volatility, whereby the long-term equilibrium dissipates. Despite the absence of oil indexation in the North American market, we find evidence of re-coupling of oil and gas prices given the demand shock of the COVID-19 pandemic. These findings are relevant to policy makers to assess market inefficiencies caused by the European gas crisis.