Oil Consumption and Economic Growth in Turkey: An ARDL Bounds Test Approach in the Presence of Structural Breaks

Özgür Özaydın,H Alper Güzel

doi:10.32861/bmer.56.77.85

Abstract

The aim of this study is to investigate the relationship between oil consumption and income in Turkey, using annual data from 1961 to 2016. The stationarity properties of the series are analyzed with Lee and Strazicizh (2003), unit root test allowing for two structural breaks, along with the conventional unit root tests namely ADF, PP and KPSS. Due to conflicting findings of the unit root tests, ARDL bounds test approach to cointegration is used to capture the relationship between oil consumption and income. The findings of the ARDL bounds test indicated that oil and income are cointegrated. The causal relationship between the variables is also examined by employing Toda and Yamamoto (1995), approach to Granger non-causality. The outcomes of the Toda and Yamamoto (1995), procedure showed that the direction of the causality is running from real GDP to oil consumption, but not vice versa. Both bounds test and Toda and Yamamoto (1995), test results reveal that, energy conservation policies will not harm economic growth in Turkey.

Highlights

Since 1978, after Mao Zedong's death, Deng Xiaoping, the former General Secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, pushed the policy towards bringing the message of social and economic transformation to bring China on a new level, using the guidelines of capitalism along with socialism or central planning
One most of fascinate changes in China, is skyrocket rise of economy that relied on income from large amount of goods manufacture like in the first past decades, and the new high innovation and technology that China can make, for example, electronic payment system, world class high-speed and cheap public transportation, fast accurate artificial intelligence (AI) logistic services, huge scale construction, as well as spaceship projects and commercial jet aircraft made by Chinese
The plot of economic growth shows that China is really facing the slow-down situation from over-supply in the production of goods there is more fluctuation in Thailand with no pattern to forecast

Summary

Introduction

Since 1978, after Mao Zedong's death, Deng Xiaoping, the former General Secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, pushed the policy towards bringing the message of social and economic transformation to bring China on a new level, using the guidelines of capitalism along with socialism or central planning The important policies such as authorizing foreign direct investment to China, improving the infrastructure system, establishing special new economic zones along the coasts, as well as encouragement of improving the legal system in taxes and incentives to encourage the expansion of investment and industry development, have so far driven China onto the path of growth. One most of fascinate changes in China, is skyrocket rise of economy that relied on income from large amount of goods manufacture like in the first past decades, and the new high innovation and technology that China can make, for example, electronic payment system, world class high-speed and cheap public transportation, fast accurate artificial intelligence (AI) logistic services, huge scale construction, as well as spaceship projects and commercial jet aircraft made by Chinese

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Conclusion