Oil conservation: permanent or reversible. The example of homes in the OECD

Abstract

This paper estimates the permanent and reversible components of changes in heating oil use in major OECD countries. We analyze and discuss changes in the share of oil in total final residential enegy consumption, the share of oil-based systems among all heating systems (both central systems and room stoves), the trends in unit consumption in homes with oil-based central heating, as well as the trends in heating oil prices. We reveal the components of the rise in oil use through the mid 1970s, and detail the components of the decline since that time. Finally we comment on some of the causes for these changes. It is found that for seven major OECD countries, residential oil use decreased by 32% between 1972/1973 and 1982, for a savings of about 1 million barrels per day (50 million tonnes of oil equivalent (MToe) per year). One fourth of these savings were caused by reductions in the number of homes heated with oil, the rest in reductions in oil use per oil heated home. During that time, however, the size and central heating penetration in these homes increased significantly, so these figures underestimated the real conservation efforts made to date. Of the total oil savings, 44% were found to be of a permanent nature, while the rest could be reversed with a continued slide in oil prices, although it is judged likely that most of these savings will remain and probably increase.