Offshore wind power in China: A potential solution to electricity transformation and carbon neutrality

Abstract

China is likely to lead global offshore wind power development, in the hope of transforming the coal-based electricity system and reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, the potential of power generation and emissions mitigation is largely unknown, and the contribution of offshore wind utilization to regional carbon neutrality needs to be further clarified. Here, we reveal that offshore wind energy resources are abundant in China, with an estimated power generation potential of about 17.5 PWh, more than doubling the current power consumption nationwide. Although current utilization of offshore wind energy in China accounts for 21% of global overall capacity, the total share is still limited, supplying just 0.4% of national electricity needs (2019). With the increasing use of offshore wind, by 2050, the planned installation along China coast would be nearly five times as much as current (2019) global capacity, or 25 times of current national offshore wind power generation. The total CO2 emissions reduction in 2050 due to the decrease in coal use is projected to be 294.3 Tg CO2-eq yr–1, equivalent to 20% of current emissions from coal-fired power in the coastal region. The size of reduced emissions is higher than current CO2 emissions in about 90% of countries. Our results highlight the important role of offshore wind power in upgrading the energy system and achieving carbon neutrality. Future studies are encouraged to further explore technological, economic and institutional challenges facing offshore wind energy deployment and low-carbon energy system development.