Abstract
The warming of the Mediterranean Sea surface is currently estimated to have been 0.4°C per decade for the period 1985-2006, and the increase in water temperature may have negatively affected marine aquaculture, e.g. by decreasing productivity. Development of aquaculture without adequate planning can lead to unsustainable economic feasibility due to future climate stressors. In this sense, offshore mariculture could be an alternative for mitigating the effect of coastal warming. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the suitability of the coastline in terms of global warming and sea surface temperature trends in locations where fish aquaculture is currently being developed, as well as the spatial changes of thermal anomalies up to 30 km from the coast, during the last 31 yr in the western Mediterranean (Spanish coast). This study was conducted using EU Copernicus Marine Service Information, covering the period 1981-2018, with a spatial resolution of 4 × 4 km. The results show that, over the last decade, the Mediterranean coastal environment off the Iberian Peninsula has experienced an increase in temperature of around 1ºC due to global change, with a clear latitudinal pattern modified by mesoscale oceanographic processes. The development of offshore aquaculture at some latitudes mitigates the extreme aestival effects on surface water temperatures. Strategic plans for aquaculture development should be able to forecast and incorporate future climate projections and local oceanographic conditions, and offshore aquaculture may provide an alternative in some regions, depending on local oceanographic conditions.
Highlights
In 2001, the Third Assessment Report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change warned that the climate within the Mediterranean Basin may become warmer and drier in the 21st century (Joos et al 2001)
The results show that, over the last decade, the Mediterranean coastal environment off the Iberian Peninsula has experienced an increase in temperature of around 1oC due to global change, with a clear latitudinal pattern modified by mesoscale oceanographic processes
The results of our work show that over the last decade, the Mediterranean coastal environment of the Iberian Peninsula has suffered an important increase in both average temperature and the standard deviation (SD) due to global warming
Summary
In 2001, the Third Assessment Report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change warned that the climate within the Mediterranean Basin may become warmer and drier in the 21st century (Joos et al 2001). The biological response to the increased water temperature affecting marine aquaculture, at the organism level, is likely to involve aerobic capacity, reproduction, maturation and development, growth rate, nutrition, immune function, and the timing of seasonal activities (Barange et al 2018, Reid et al 2019). Warmer conditions may allow the establishment of exotic diseases (Gubbins 2006) Despite these negative side effects, increased growth rates due to warmer temperatures have been predicted, for molluscs (Reid et al 2019, Hu et al 2021). Increased temperatures could generate the possibility of rearing warmer-water species at higher latitudes (Callaway et al 2012), but that could involve the introduction of exotic species with potentially negative effects on native fauna. Finfish appear more resilient than bivalves in the changing climate, but other factors could limit growth and production for both taxonomic groups in the future, such as the higher frequency, extent and magnitude of harmful algal blooms, disease outbreaks, and hypoxia (Froehlich et al 2018)
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