Offset Risk Minimization for Open-loop Optimal Control of Oil Reservoirs * *This project is financially supported by The Danish Advanced Technology Foundation (OPTION; 63-2013-3)

Abstract

Abstract Simulation studies of oil field water flooding have demonstrated a significant potential of optimal control technology to improve industrial practices. However, real-life applications are challenged by unknown geological factors that make reservoir models highly uncertain. To minimize the associated financial risks, the oil literature has used ensemble-based methods to manipulate the net present value (NPV) distribution by optimizing sample estimated risk measures. In general, such methods successfully reduce overall risk. However, as this paper demonstrates, ensemble-based control strategies may result in individual profit outcomes that perform worse than real-life dominating strategies. This poses significant financial risks to oil companies whose main concern is to avoid unacceptable low profits. To remedy this, this paper proposes offset risk mimimization . Unlike existing methodology, the offset method uses the NPV offset distribution to minimize risk relative to a competing reference strategy. Open-loop simulations of a 3D two-phase synthetic reservoir demonstrate the potential of offset risk minimization to significantly improve the worst case profit offset relative to real-life best practices. The results suggest that it may be more relevant to consider the NPV offset distribution than the NPV distribution when minimizing risk in production optimization.