Offset integrity reduces environmental risk: Using lessons from biodiversity and carbon offsetting to inform water quality offsetting in the catchments of the Great Barrier Reef

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Environmental offsetting has been developed as a mechanism to facilitate the benefits from economic development while avoiding or minimizing environmental harm. This is achieved by compensating for environmental impacts at one location by generating equivalent environmental improvements elsewhere. However, experience with biodiversity and carbon offsetting indicates it can be difficult to ensure the integrity of offsets. Under recent legislation in the catchments of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), Australia, it is mandatory for water quality emissions from new or expanded point source development to be offset by reducing pollution elsewhere, frequently through reducing non-point source pollution (NPSP). Therefore, informed by experience with biodiversity and carbon offsetting, we summarised sources of uncertainty in NPSP reduction that would influence water quality offset integrity; estimated the maximum potential demand for water quality offsets from sewage treatment plants, the largest point source emitter of total nitrogen (TN) in the GBR catchments, between 2018 and 2050; and discussed the implications of both on the ability of offsetting to counterbalance the impact of economic development in catchments where nitrogen loads have a large influence on the health of important GBR ecosystems. The catchments surrounding the population centres of Cairns and Mackay had both a potentially high future demand for nitrogen water quality offsets and nitrogen loads with a strong influence on the health of the GBR. Consequently, any low integrity water quality offsets in these catchments could jeopardise progress toward the water quality improvements needed to ensure the continued health of the GBR. Water quality offsetting has numerous strengths as a policy instrument however substantial uncertainties remain related to environmental outcomes. Until further research can reduce these uncertainties, water quality offsets that are implemented near increased point source emissions and have a high certainty of effectiveness may provide a balance between scientific rigour and policy workability.