Official Targets, Data, and Policies for China's Population Growth: An Assessment

Abstract

In China a poor nation with an essentially rural economy the central government does not release demographic data. However provincial statistics on the residents of major administrative units provide a reasonable view of some broad characteristics of the Chinese population and these local data seem to be more accurate than the national figures quoted by the central administration. Data on population growth and its primary componenets are published mainly about exceptional areas in which significant declines in birthrates have occurred. Although these data are questionable at times it appears that significant progress has been made toward reduced overall population growth through substantial declines in growth rates for particular areas. The latter can be attributed to successful mass campaigns. Resistance toward population and other forms of planning has become evident. 2 ongoing problems are limited direct Peking access to essential statistical information and deliberate efforts to sabotage the work of statistics departments. Additionally unless a flow of accurate demographic data from the local areas to the capital can be assured central authorities will find it difficult to determine the extent to which individual localities are encouraging this program in the form of measures to eradicate feudalistic marriages and son preference and to inculcate commitment to family planning.